Melissa Frey’s Forecast Discussion:
Temperatures only dropped to 49 degrees in Eugene last night! We had a nice surge of warm air from the west behind yesterday’s warm front and clouds overnight to keep it here.
A ridge of high pressure is parked just off shore and is continuing to rotate in small storms. It’s sort of like a ferris wheel: clockwise flow around the high pressure picks up storms in the pacific and drops them into western Washington and Oregon.
Another warm front is moving through today, keeping our temps mild this afternoon (mid 50s), clouds overhead and light rain showers for the day.
This warm air is also being felt in the Cascades. The freezing level will climb to 7,500 feet this afternoon, spreading rain all the way up to the passes. The National Weather Center has issued an Avalanche Warning for the north Oregon Cascades and Washington Cascades.
Another storm will follow that same path early Wednesday. This one is a bit larger and brings better chances for rain for the coast and valley. Freezing levels below the passes behind this storm, so it’ll be back to snow for the ski resorts.
That ridge will slide east Thursday and Friday, which will move us from the north side of the ridge to south side of the ridge. This means dry, partly sunny skies are on tap for Thursday and Friday morning.
The models are waffling on the details for this weekend. All indications are that we’ll see another round of winter weather Saturday and Sunday as a cold area of low pressure moves in from the northwest.
Questions still remain though on how cold the air will get and how much moisture will be available.
Chances are good for heavy snow in mountains above 2,000 feet. We could also see light accumulations between 1,000 and 2,000 feet and a few flurries to the valley floor Sunday. Stay tuned as we continue to refine this forecast over the coming days!