Not a whole lot has changed with the forecast, but I wanted to go ahead and just do a rundown of what’s going on. Right now we still have a very zonal pattern. That means cool, moist air is moving in off the water. There is a small disturbance off the coast that is sending a small warm front to the north of our area. I think there is the possibility because it is so moist in the atmosphere, that we could see a light shower or drizzle overnight. However, for most of us the chance is small with the bulk of the showers off to our north. After that, Friday looks to be very similar to Thursday both in sky conditions and temperatures. Models are putting a few showers in overnight Friday into Saturday morning. I don’t think this is a bad idea, in fact, I’m keeping a slight chance of showers for the Willamette Valley and North and Central Coast in my forecast as well. We just have enough moisture, I think, to squeeze out a shower or some drizzle.
We’ve had the jetstream pointed at us for days, which is on the top side of a ridge that’s to our south. The ridge is going to try to fight back for Saturday, and if it does we could actually see a break in the clouds that would last more than a few minutes. Our next disturbance is still lining up for Sunday into early Monday morning. As of right now, I don’t think the shower activity is going to amount to much. In fact, a couple of the models are putting only a couple one-hundredths in for totals for the whole event. The bigger story could be the temperatures. While models have been trending cooler for the last couple of runs, the GFS is now dumping a pocket of cool air in as early as Mon/Tues and keeping it around for the duration of the extended forecast. I only think this will happen if that cool air comes in behind Monday’s cold front. If that cold front ends up falling apart or sliding to the north a little more, the temperatures will not likely be as cold. I want to give it another run or two before I drop temperatures too much, so I’ve only drop them a degree for Tuesday through Thursday.
–Meteorologist, Megan Taylor