So much for those couple breaks of sunshine and dry weather! Mid-level moisture is being ushered in by the jetstream which not only helped the cloud cover stay thick, it also brought in some drizzle and light showers. Oddly enough, this is the second time we’ve had a Ducks game in which we’ve had an unexpected turn in the weather. Last time a front that was supposed to move out, stalled over the area and dumped one good pocket of showers on Autzen. This time, it is the moisture in the mid-levels keeping a slight chance for showers or drizzle in for the game and overnight hours.
If you check out the two soundings below, you can see that the moisture is a very shallow layer. The Salem sounding has moisture has moisture from about 700 mb to about 925. Not only is that a fairly shallow layer of moisture, there is a pocket of slightly drier air close to the surface that could aid in some evaporation or absorption.
The Medford Sounding has an even drier column of air with the maximum moisture between 550 mb and 700 mb. However, a large chunk of the lower atmosphere is very dry. That being said, it is more likely (given some interpolation) that the drizzle or light showers are more likely to hit the ground further north towards Salem, rather than further south towards Roseburg.
So far models are still pushing cloud cover out by mid-day, and partly sunny skies should help things warm up. The rest of the forecast is pretty much on tap with yesterday’s blog post. The one question I really have right now is Wednesday. The cutoff low to the southwest is supposed to move up for mid-week. However, the GFS and the foreign models are really not putting much in the way of rainfall into the forecast. It is possible this could stay well to our south, or lose enough moisture to become more of a thermal low by the time it gets here. After that, I think our next best chance will come from a small disturbance overnight Friday into Saturday.
–Meteorologist, Megan Taylor