I really do not have a lot of adjustments to our forecast. I have noticed a huge space between our latest disturbance and the leading edge of our next storm. It looks like it will be late evening on Sunday into the overnight hours before the next band of rain heads onshore. That being said, I think we can go most of the day Sunday with dry weather. I bumped temperatures up just a little, taking the Central and South Willamette Valley as well as the Umpqua Basin into the low 70’s with partly sunny skies. The sun will not hang around all day, however, as clouds will fill in toward the mid to late afternoon. I also took temperatures up a couple degrees along the coast, but I think skies will remain mostly cloudy with just a break here or there of sun. After that it looks like we’re still set for a very soggy work week, with several waves of rain and showers moving in. Tuesday night into Wednesday looks to be the wettest, with some forecasted rainfall totals nearing an inch by Wednesday evening just from that one band. I still think the coolest day will be Wednesday, with temperatures struggling to breaking into the low 60’s for most of the area. After that, longer range models such as the GFS, GEM, and ECMWF are developing a ridge of high pressure for Friday and Saturday, which could lead to some sunny skies and a warm-up.
I also wanted to share this image of Hurricane Ophelia that was taken Saturday afternoon. Ophelia has had a bumpy life cycle, and was barely hanging on as a depression just a few days ago. Now look at her! She’s a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with sustained winds of 135 mph! I’m so glad she’s not lining up for land just yet. Chances of landfall are small, but right now the official National Hurricane Center track is lining her up for the corner of Newfoundland, but as a post-tropical system. (Post-tropical means the storm is cold-cored, and not warm-cored like the tropics. It would have similar characteristics to a strong low pressure storm like we see on land.)