Fall Isn’t Quite Here, Yet

The past few days have definitely felt like Fall, but summer isn’t cashing in just yet.  In fact, a few more summer-like days are looming.

 

On Saturday very early in the morning, as small ragged cold front moved through.  However, it didn’t do much for us, just pushing in some extra clouds.  While temperatures were a little cooler, cloud cover was mostly the culprit.  As we head into Sunday, a couple more fronts are knocking on our door.  The question is: Will them move in before they are torn apart.  My honest feeling, is no.  I’m not alone in this feeling, in fact most models have scaled back their rain and cooler air for Sunday night into Monday.  The warm front is close, however, and will move through over night.  When we get a warm front, we obviously receive warmer air.  Not only is that air filtered in at the upper levels, we also get a shift in the winds, pulling more warm air in at the surface from the south.  (SEE PICTURE).  That’s what we call the warm sector of a storm or frontal system.  With a classic set-up, or by the book as we like to call it, a cold front would generally follow.  That would mean a cold air mass moving over and surface winds having a northerly component and in our case northwesterly direction.   In our current situation, there is a pretty good chance we’ll feel the warm front effects, but I doubt the cold front will hold together enough to really give us a solid impact.  I still think there is a slight chance for showers for the coast, especially from about Newport and up further north.  Portland I think has a very good chance.  However, for those of us in the Willamette Valley, I think the best chances are from Salem north, with slight chances for Corvallis and Albany from about mid-afternoon through Monday morning.  For those in the southern Willamette Valley, I’m definitely not ruling out a shower in the afternoon, but I think chances are smaller, and best timing would be overnight in Monday morning.  That is the same time frame I think any resident in the Umpqua Basin could catch a shower, but it wouldn’t surprise me if none of that region saw a drop! The mountains are a different story because the topography on the western side (windward side) adds that lifting component, forcing air to go over the peaks.  Lift aids in formation of showers.  From about McKenzie Bridge/Blue River area and north, chances are a little better, especially late evening, early Monday morning.

 

As for the high pressure we’ve seen so much of this last month, it isn’t back off too far.  In fact, by Tuesday I think it will return, with mostly sunny skies and low 80’s returning to region by mid-week.  So I wouldn’t put away those short sleeves just yet!

 

-Megan Taylor

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One Response to Fall Isn’t Quite Here, Yet

  1. Karl Bonner says:

    Wonderful to see a South Valley weather blog up and running…Bruce Sussman and Mark Nelsen in Portland would be very proud. Now if we could just get a TV news channel for the Columbia River Gorge and have a weather center specifically devoted to that region!

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