Phew! It’s hot out there! Already this morning temperatures are starting warm and the sunshine is pouring in! The set up really hasn’t changed much in the past 24 hours.
We still have a ridge sitting off the shore, keeping warm air and clear skies in place. By Saturday, the ridge will start to back off a little, but warm air will remain for at least Sunday. From there, model consensus isn’t great. The foreign models (GEM and EMCWF) are keeping a slight ridge in place through Tuesday or Wednesday, but backing it off just enough for a slight cool down. The storm in the Gulf of Alaska is being forecasted to quickly deteriorate and move well to our north. The GFS, however, is dropping that storm a little further south, before pushing it northeast. At the same time, it is pulling the high further away from the coast. This would allow that storm to eject a pocket of cooler air south around Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. If that does happen, we’ll see temps drop closer to average. (Upper 70’s/Low 80’s). While the strength of the storm is impressive considering the current setup, I’m not convinced the ridge will give up so easy like the GFS is predicting. However, the storm is too strong to just simply fall apart. That’s why I’ve gone with middle ground, and keep cool air pushing south by mid-week, but I don’t see quite as cool of air coming down. Given that the GFS backed off of the cool 8 degree 850 temperatures from yesterday, and are now going with 14-15 degree temps, I think the middle scenario seems a little more likely.
What does that mean for numbers? Well, Friday through Sunday will remain hot! If you’re headed out to Autzen to watch the Ducks taken on Nevada, take the sunscreen and keep hydrated. Temps by kickoff will already be in the low to mid-80’s.
The Beavers will have much more pleasant playing conditions in Madison, Wisconsin, where temperatures will be 71 degrees at kickoff (9 am PT), with an abundance of sunshine.
Next week will likely bring a cool down, but the question is how low do we go? I think Monday will still be pretty warm with upper 80’s, Tuesday and Wednesday slightly cooler with low to mid-80’s. By Thursday, the coolest air should be through with possibly a few upper 70’s out there. However, if we can’t squeeze a pocket of cooler air from this storm as it passes to the north, relief from the heat may take a while.
Have a great weekend and stay safe!
Meteorologist Megan Taylor